The Drake Equation
The Drake Equation
N = fs
* fp * ne * fld * fi
* fc * fl
N = The
number of communicative civilizations in the Milky Way
fs
= The number of stars in the Milky Way
fp
= The fraction of those stars with planets (Current evidence
indicates that planetary systems may be common for stars like
our Sun.)
ne
= The number of Earth-like worlds per planetary system
fld
= The fraction of those Earth-like planets where life actually
develops
fi
= The fraction of life sites where intelligence develops
fc
= The fraction of communicative planets (those on which
electromagnetic communications technology develops)
fl
= The fraction of a planet's lifetime that has a technological
civilization
If we
substitute,
N = fs * fp * ne * fld
* fi * fc * fl
with
N = 400
billion (1/4) 2 (1/2) (1/10) (1/10) (1/100 million)
then
N ~ 10
technological civilizations in just the Milky Way Galaxy!
What would we
do to determine the number of technological civilizations that
exist in the Universe? Multiply this by 50-200 billion; the
estimated number of galaxies in our Universe.
Click here for the Javascript
version of the Drake Equation.